What a weekend of college football this is shaping up to be. The top 6, with the exception of #2 Alabama who’s on a bye, have some of their toughest tests of the season culminating into what may turn out to be the most competitive week we’ve seen thus far.
Last week was probably my worst week so far, going 7-9 against the spread, but I am proud that Western Kentucky made me think I knew what I was talking about last week by beating the points against an overrated Virginia Tech club.
Last week against the spread: 7-9
Season against the spread: 30-15
Last week straight up: 14-2
Season straight up: 39-10
As always, e-mail me any thoughts on the games or questions at JoeB@wgr550.com
(1)Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. (5)Texas
What an incredible game to start with. I love top-caliber matchups on a neutral field. So for this edition of the ‘Red River Rivalry’ (I know it’s not approved but I liked ‘Red River Shootout’ way better) it’s a battle of two Heisman candidates. The one thing no one likes to talk about is that both Sam Bradford (OU) and Colt McCoy (UT) are prone to a bone-headed throw or two. One of those throws late will be the difference between these two teams. Who’s it belong to? Call me crazy but..
Pick: Texas 37, Oklahoma 34
(17)Oklahoma State at (3)Missouri (-13.5)
High powered offenses collide in this Big XII battle. It’s going to turn in to a staring contest, and I don’t think Missouri has blinked yet this season. I do like OK State to keep it close though.
Pick: Missouri 48, Oklahoma State 38
(4)LSU at (11)Florida (-6)
I told you, the hits just keep on coming this week with quality Top 10 matchups. Florida put a band-aid over a gash last week by beating up on a weak Arkansas defense in the 4th quarter. But Arkansas kept it close the majority of the game, which worries me for Florida’s sake. But these games regardless of the weaknesses are always close. But consider this, the Florida defense is much improved and DC Charlie Strong isn’t afraid to bring the heat at home in a night game. Sound it off, UPSET ALERT.
Pick: Florida 27, LSU 24
(6)Penn State (-5) at Wisconsin
The Badgers lost two tough ones down the stretch against a weaker Michigan team on the road and Ohio State at home, and you better believe they’ll be playing for their pride this weekend at Camp Randall. The Big Ten is hoping Penn State can make it through the year unblemished, but this is an incredibly tough matchup. My mind’s telling me Penn State but my gut is saying go with Wisconsin.
Pick: Penn State 31, Wisconsin 28
Nebraska at (7)Texas Tech (-21)
Now things are getting a bit easier. Texas Tech showed me up and in a big way last week. I overrated Kansas State and Texas Tech never let up. That was a statement game. Nebraska was exposed defensively by Missouri. I don’t think Texas Tech has as good a defense as Missouri, but they sure have the offense to match.
Pick: Texas Tech 58, Nebraska 24
Arizona State at (8)USC (-26.5)
What in the world happened to the Sun Devils this year? Rudy Carpenter has been disappointing, and he may not even play on Saturday. USC is on a redemption tour after being nationally embarrassed by Oregon State. USC in a big way.
Pick: USC 54, Arizona State 20
New Mexico at (9)BYU (-23.5)
New Mexico is a bit better than advertised, but BYU is tough at home. I think the Lobos beat the spread.
Pick: BYU 45, New Mexico 24
Tennessee at (12)Georgia (-12.5)
Philip Fulmer’s days have to be numbered don’t they? When was the last time Tennessee actually mattered? They made it to the SEC Championship game last year, but with 3 losses. And hey, they get rewarded for a low scoring “hard-fought” affair with Northern Illinois (really?) with playing a Georgia team led by coach Mark Richt who likes to make statement wins after his team loses a big game. Good luck, Vols.
Pick: Georgia 34, Tennessee 12
Purdue at (12)Ohio State (-19)
Speaking of senior QB’s who have fell off the map, what about Purdue’s Curtis Painter? The Boilermaker offense has unexpectedly hit a stand still this season leading coach Joe Tiller to call out his senior QB. With that said, how about Terrelle Pryor marching his team to victory with a 4th quarter drive in Wisconsin? I know we say it every year, but if Chris Wells comes back next year, watch out for the Buckeyes.
Pick: Ohio State 37, Purdue 13
(13)Vanderbilt (-2.5) at Mississippi State
The odds-makers are uneasy about this game, and for good reason. We still don’t know a lot about Vanderbilt. They’re starting quarterback Chris Nickson didn’t finish the game against Auburn. The Commodores are great at home but we don’t know about them against a tough team on the road. Those questions will be answered, but not this week.
Pick: Vanderbilt 20, Mississippi State 10
(14)Utah (-23.5) at Wyoming
Wyoming was blown out earlier this season by BYU. I watched that game, they weren’t even competitive. Utah should roll in this one.
Pick: Utah 42, Wyoming 17
(15)Boise State (-11.5) at Southern Miss
It’s a rat race between BYU, Utah and Boise State for that non-BCS conference bid. I don’t think Boise State gets upset here, but Southern Miss will keep it close. Boise State is a good road team, folks. They’ve been through this grind before.
Pick: Boise State 39, Southern Miss 31
Colorado at (16)Kansas (-14)
Kansas coming off a scare from Iowa State and Colorado was dominated by Texas. I’m not sold on the Jayhawks run defense this season, and that’s the Buffaloes bigges asset. I’ll put this one on UPSET ALERT. I’ve thought Kansas was due for a down year this season and I think it starts here.
Pick: Colorado 33, Kansas 31
Arkansas at (20)Auburn (-19)
I’m not sold Auburn can even score 19 points in one game let alone beat another team by that margin, no matter how bad Arkansas is. Auburn wins, but don’t bother watching unless you need to catch up on sleep.
Pick: Auburn 17, Arkansas 6
Notre Dame at (22)North Carolina (-7.5)
The Fighting Irish aren’t even ranked and people are already picking them to make a BCS Bowl this year. I’m not buying it. I do like Jimmy Clausen throwing 300 yard for the first time, and the fact he chopped off the long hair (he looked like a gremlin with it didn’t he?). But Charlie Weis, that guy running all over your team is #87 Brandon Tate. The Tar Heels are a good football team, I think they can challenge for the ACC crown this season. Notre Dame beats the spread though.
Pick: North Carolina 32, Notre Dame 29
(23)Michigan State (-1) at Northwestern
Northwestern is quietly undefeated this season. This will be a battle between two premiere Big Ten running backs in Javon Ringer and Tyrell Sutton. I think Northwestern can pull the “upset” so this one is also on UPSET ALERT. This two teams are very close in talent, but I like the home-field advantage for the Wildcats.
Pick: Northwestern 26, Michigan State 24
(25)Ball State (-16) at Western Kentucky
I just again would like to thank Western Kentucky for their performance last week against the Hokies. But they face a better offense in Ball State (never thought I’d say that) led by quarterback Nate Davis. This is a good Cardinals club. I think they roll here.
Pick: Ball State 54, Western Kentucky 13
E-mail: JoeB@wgr550.com
