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SIMON: QB Quandary



I spent many of my college football weekends last year watching the top quarterbacks.  When the Trent Edwards era with the Bills officially came to an end in September, I figured the franchise was destined to find their quarterback of the future in the 2011 draft so why not see who was out there. My personal top 3 were: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton and Ryan Mallett although there was a pretty good gap between Newton and Mallett. 

 

This year, I didn't spend any time watching the top signal callers in college because as the first few weeks of the season played out, it sure looked like the Bills found their quarterback of the future and his name was Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Do you remember when it seemed like the Bills would never again have a quarterback throw for a 200 yard game?  Fitzpatrick opened the season topping that mark in wins over Kansas City and Oakland while also throwing 7 touchdown passes and only 1 interception.  At the time the popular opinion was that Fitzpatrick probably wasn't an elite qb who can win a Super Bowl but you can win games with him and compete for a playoff spot.  In addition the Bills can draft a quarterback at some point(no rush) and he can train under Fitzpatrick.

 

When the Bills broke the streak against New England and Fitzpatrick threw for 389 yards and 2 TD's, Western New York went into "just pay the man" mode for not only Fitzpatrick but Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson as well.  But times have dramatically changed as far as the fans feelings towards the number 1 qb and his 6 year, $59 million contract.  As far as drafting a quarterback next April, it now seems its a matter of when and not if.  Should the Bills use their first round pick on a qb?  What about trading up to make sure they get 1 of the top guys available?  There's even some sentiment to cut ties with Fitzpatrick and get out of the new contract. 

 

According to ProFootballTalk.com, the Bills can do exactly that after the season and only be on the hook for the $10 million signing bonus Fitzpatrick received.  If you're thinking about free agency for a stop gap at the position, there isn't much to get excited about.  The pool of free agents includes: Alex Smith(who I would think the Niners would now re-sign), Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell, Donovan McNabb, Chad Henne, Vince Young, Rex Grossman(stop me if anyone is worth it), Kyle Boller, David Garrard, Brady Quinn and Shaun Hill.  If the Indianapolis Colts end up with the first overall pick and decided to trade Peyton Manning, that might change the Bills plans.

 

Everything is on the table because Fitzpatrick and the offense have completely fallen apart.  During the 7 game losing streak Fitzpatrick is completing only 57% of his passes(it was 67% during the 5-2 start), while throwing 8 TD's and getting picked off 12 times.  His 19 interceptions for the season is the most in the NFL. While the losing streak has extended the Bills playoff drought to 12 seasons and sucked the life out of Western New York, it has also moved the Bills up in the draft order.  They are currently 10th and in a group of 5 win teams along with Washington, Carolina and Miami.  4 win teams Jacksonville, Cleveland and Tampa Bay are next, occupying draft spots 4 thru 6. 

 

It appears the consensus top 3 quarterbacks who could be available in the draft are Luck, Matt Barkley from USC and Baylor's Robert Griffin III who just recently won the Heisman Trophy.  None of them are seniors so they would have to declare for the draft.  If you're wondering which teams currently above the Bills would consider taking a quarterback with their first pick, Indianapolis, Washington and Miami are on the list.  So the top 3 guys could all be gone by the time the Bills are on the clock.

 

Here's what I would do.  First, I would not release Fitzpatrick.  It isn't a contract that will weigh the Bills down or limit their abilities to make other moves to improve the roster(and many are needed). If he plays next season, the Bills will owe Fitzpatrick just under $8 million.  It would be just over $7 million in 2013 so they can pay him while developing his replacement.  That replacement should come from the 2012 draft, the only question is where?  I would prefer the Bills take that top pick and bring in an impact player on defense or even a wide receiver to complement Stevie Johnson(or take his spot if the Bills can't re-sign him). But quite honestly, Fitzpatrick has made me skeptical and you can't win in the NFL without a big time quarterback.  If there is a guy they love, or as Buddy Nix would say a 10 year franchise guy, then do whatever you have to do to get him.  Trade up for Luck or Barkley or RG III if one of those men fits the aforementioned description.  If not, then get an impact player for the woeful defense in round 1 and look at qb options in round 2.  Andy Dalton was a 2nd round pick and seems to be working out just fine in Cincinnati.

 

Make sure you join me on Saturday for the pre game show since the qb's will be the talk of the day.  I'll be discussing Fitzpatrick's future as well as Tebowmania. The WGR Pre Game show begins at 8am and I'll be on from 10-noon.

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Locations: Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Miami, New England, New York, Oakland, Washington
People: Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Brady Quinn, Cam Newton, Chad Henne, David Garrard, Donovan McNabb, Fred Jackson, Jason Campbell, Kyle Boller, Kyle Orton, Matt Barkley, Peyton Manning, Rex Grossman(stop, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill, Stevie Johnson, Vince Young
12/21/2011 7:37PM
SIMON: QB Quandary
Please enter your comments below.
12/21/2011 8:41PM
Fitz
If Ralph really wants to save money trade away our next three 1st round picks and a couple 2nd round picks for the 1st pick. We get our qb and ralph doesnt have to pay for any 1st round picks for the next few years.
12/21/2011 8:54PM
sorry howie
you're wrong again, drop FitzBeard like a hot potato.
12/21/2011 9:10PM
Ruff=cancer; Regier=Cancer; Ralphie=Cancer
They all need to be eradicated. Only then Buffalo sports teams will have Hope
12/21/2011 9:26PM
Good column but.....
One huge stumbling block to any decent plan for the future......RALPH WILSON. With him in charge, the Bills are doomed!
12/21/2011 9:46PM
What Now?
Keep Fitz but draft a QB in second or third round? like a Dalton or Flacco? and can anyone help Fitz with his ball control when throwing? sometimes his throws r very good n others? you need a 6'9" receiver to catch it?
12/21/2011 11:17PM
There is NO hope whatsoever
Seriously, why even bother caring about the NFL, the bills, etc. Ralph's putrid ownership ensures misery for WNY sports fans. Let's have Obama just declare them champs; he's good at picking winners.
12/21/2011 11:44PM
Ralph is the problem
As long as Ralph Wilson is the owner, they will continue to be a losing team.
12/21/2011 11:51PM
Stop It
How about stop being so critical about the quarterback and actually get a defense who can stop the opposing team from scoring 35 points a game. These Bums like Mckelvin and Florence need to go NOW!!!
12/22/2011 12:54AM
Russell Wilson
Would look great in a Bills uniform...
12/22/2011 1:31AM
with or without
with or without ralph the bills are dead
12/22/2011 2:12AM
Trade Up - Everything you got is what you do
Andrew Luck is a franchise Athlete - The Colts have Peyton Manning who will play... You offer the Colts everything you got. Thats it. The colts would love that offer, since their team is terrible without a qb
12/22/2011 6:44AM
Enough with grooming a lower tier QB....
We tried that...Collins, JP, Edwards to name a few. It's time to take a chance on a top tier QB. Buffalo, do what it takes to get one of the big 3.
12/22/2011 9:04AM
A Quality QB can be found if...
...the Bills scouting department is any good (which it isn't). Tom Brady was not a #1, but the Pats did a good job of scouting and knew he had potential. Until Ralph and his front office go, the Bills are doomed.
12/22/2011 9:08AM
New Poll
Here is an idea for a new poll. How many people can't stand the idiot cry baby callers who think they know about sports of WGR. My guess and hope is around 80%
12/22/2011 10:14AM
Progressions
The problem with Fitz is that he does not go through his progressions. If it's a screen play called, that's what he does...same with any pattern/play called. He never goes to a second option/progression except when his first look is covered and he decides to run, but usually he throws it anyway no matter the coverage, never looking at the other side of the field. A great example is the Tenn game on the last drive. On 3rd down he called a play to his right to Johnson and he threw it there...had he looked, Roosevelt was WIDE open at the 30 on a deep slant. I was there...I couldn't believe he never even looked to that side of the field. That's what the defense does now...once he turns his head they know which side of the field the play is on and attack. Watch on Saturday and you'll see it.
12/22/2011 10:15AM
Going Nowhere
This franchise is a joke, we are going nowhere as long as Ralph owns the team. We can talk all we want about who to draft, sign, cut or trade. None of that matters because it comes down to one thing, we have a cheap owner who will do what it takes to get by. There is no real effort on his part to win, and aside from a few years in the 90's that has always been the case. Who knows what will happen once he passes. All we can hope and pray for is someone with deep pockets and a will to win, steps up to keep this franchise here. That is all we have left.
12/22/2011 10:47AM
The Bills are what we thought they were...
Good for the coaching staff for being prepared at the beginning of the season, especially after the lockout. But as the league got rolling the Bills couldn't adjust. I blame the coaches for lack of in-season adjustments, not the players. Especiallyduring games, the Bills have repeatedly been out-coached in the 2nd half of games since week 5. The defensive turnovers early in the season just masked the fact that the defense was below average at best.
12/22/2011 10:48AM
what is the Quandry?
Fitzpatrick always has been a backup and FOR GOOD REASON. I really don't care if Jackson was healthy or Wood or whomever, Fitzpatrick is servicable at best and a good career backup. You have to dump him and draft best QB at wherever you end up drafting, anybody can see this.
12/22/2011 11:02AM
shave the beard
I would ditch Fitzy in a heartbeat. He may be a smart guy but he's a 1 dimensional QB who only succeeded thansk to those quick screens thrown to Freddie J. Once all the other teams figured this out (and Freddie was out with his leg injury) he was exposed and has sucked wind ever since. Unless you're insane and think that doing the same thing will give you different results then you have to cut him and try something else. Sadly I think the Bills take the easy way out and keep him. Man...it's tough to be a Bills fan!!!
12/22/2011 12:01PM
Trade up and draft
Luck, Barkley or Griffin. im not giving up on Luck until the Colts are #1 in the draft then its done or else St. Louis or Minnesota will be there and trade out to someone who wants him. But I believe Barkley or Griffin will be great as well. Im not interested in 2nd, 3rd, 4th rd etc. qbs such as Kellen Moore, Russell Wilson, or even Landry Jones (who should go back to school one more year). this franchise needs an elite guy not someone who they think has upside because you get Trent Edwards. Tom Brady is def the exception not the rule. Keep Fitz another year like Howard says he's not gonna cost the Bills that much and let the rookie sit and learn.
12/22/2011 12:07PM
RUMOR MILL
I think the Bills are looking at bringing in JP Losman since he has looked good at the Dolphins practices! The Bills once again blew it with the signing of a career back up in Fitz. It shows that the Bills management team have no clue. Just look at how well they have drafted since being here. Even if we had the first pick, they probably would go with a RB!
12/22/2011 2:00PM
Re A quality QB cab be found if...
Does anyone including yourself really believe the Pats knew Tom Brady would pan out even close to this?!?! I agree we lack scouting but that is a ridiculous statement.
12/22/2011 2:07PM
Re a quality QB can be found if....
Do you really expecte to believe the Pats knew Tom Brady would pan out like this?!?! I agree we lack scouting but that is a ridiculous point.
12/22/2011 2:17PM
New Poll
I hate the commenters more, but I always read the comments. I should stop, but it kind of like watching a train wreck. It is hard to believe that there are human beings who think like this.
12/22/2011 2:24PM
I'm done
I'm done with the Bills until they can prove to me that owners want to win. All management is concerned about is making money.
12/22/2011 4:09PM
Keep Him!
Fits is the man. We need more receivers and a new defense.
12/22/2011 4:09PM
Ha!
Ha!
12/22/2011 4:20PM
Do whrat it takes to get 1st tier qb
Trade what ever picks you need to get luck. Yeah I know the d sucks, but you are nothing in the nfl without a qb. If that means 3 first rounders then do it. Build the d with the rest of the picks. Give this franchise a shot of adrenaline.
12/22/2011 4:39PM
switch
Let's trade teams with Toronto. The Argos would probably do better than the Bills. The Buffalo Argos...nice ring to it!!!
12/23/2011 3:14AM
no way around it
Fred Jackson has been the best player on this team since he got his first start. The fact that he got hurt sucks but it exposed the fact that everyone else is replaceable. I find it incredibly hard to believe that the current and previous coaching staffs here failed to realize what I've known for years (no Fred no win). The guy is a winner, he's a gamer and as long as he can come back I'd sign him to a better deal out of freaking respect, but hey what do I know, I've never run a professional football team that hasn't made the playoffs in 12 straight years.
12/25/2011 3:19PM
Same old story
They won't look for a QB in the off season. And if they were to pick a second rounder, he won't work out either. Just keep what you have with Fitz and Bills fans can expect the same results!
12/27/2011 9:42AM
Re: Same old story
you're right they won't address QB, they'll draft Trent Richardson running back out of Alabama with the 13th overall pick of the draft. Listen, they won't give Fred Jackson a contract extension and they don't believe CJ Spiller is a 25-30 carry back. This coming from the franchise that takes running backs in the first round (the least important first round draft position)
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