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One of the NFL’s most explosive offenses in the first month of the season has gone missing. That in a nutshell is why the Buffalo Bills will drag a 2 game losing streak with them on their trip to South Florida. Fan enthusiasm and playoff hopes have taken a major hit as the Bills have been outscored 71-18 in beat downs by the New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys. You probably weren’t shocked by the struggles of the defense but the ineptitude from the offense came out of nowhere.
The Bills averaged 30 points over the first 7 games but it’s only 9 points for the last 2 games. Average rushing yards per game was at 140 but it is 115 for the last 2 weeks. Average passing yards has gone from 239 to 163 which means the Bills have lost about 100 yards of total offense on the average in this 2 game skid. Third down conversion was at 41% but plummeted to 27% against the Jets and Cowboys. Turnovers have been a HUGE problem with 7 coming in the last 2 games. A staggering number when you consider the offense coughed the ball up only 9 times in the 5-2 start.
So what has happened? You can look at it 1 of 2 ways. The Bills offense ran into a pair of defenses that are ranked in the top 10 and presented challenges in different ways. The Jets have the best secondary in the league and the Bills depleted receiving corps was no match. The Cowboys pass rush was too much for the Bills to handle and it threw off Ryan Fitzpatrick and the timing of the passing game. Perhaps you subscribe to the theory that teams have a lot more film on the offense than they did back in September and they have figured out the Bills plan and how to beat it.
Former NFL General Manager Charley Casserly subscribes to that theory. Casserly, who now works for CBS Sports, said he spoke with defensive coordinators who feel the way to stop the Bills offense is by jamming the receivers at the line of scrimmage. By doing that, you disrupt their timing and make Fitzpatrick hold on to the ball longer. The coordinators believe the offensive tackles aren’t good enough to hold up against good pass rushing ends which leads to more pressures, off target throws, and interceptions. By coming up and pressing the receivers, Casserly says teams are also limiting the yards after the catch. With the formula figured out, Casserly concludes the Bills have peaked and will struggle the rest of the season. Fitzpatrick’s stats certainly have taken a hit as he has completed just 56 percent of his passes against the Ryan Brothers defenses while throwing just 2 TD passes and 5 interceptions.
I think there’s a lot of truth to that theory but I also believe the lack of depth is playing a role in the offensive downturn. It isn’t considered one of the most talented units to begin with but take out the first and second string left tackles(Demetrius Bell and Chris Hairston), and your starting slot receiver(Roscoe Parrish) and there will eventually be issues. Last Sunday was Donald Jones(the supposed number 2 receiver) first game back from injury and the production from the 2010 1st round draft pick who was supposed to bring electric playmaking ability to Buffalo seems to lessen on a game by game basis. C.J. Spiller did have a chance to make a big play in Dallas but literally dropped the ball on a deep throw from Fitzpatrick. By the way, did you know Spiller has a grand total of 5 rushes in the last 5 games?
If teams have caught up to the Bills then it is up to Chan Gailey to come with a counter move. I think he’s a smart enough offensive thinker to do this but I wonder if in reality, you can only do so much with the weapons in place. My advice to Chan is to spoon out a heavy dose of Fred Jackson to the Dolphins defense. The NFL’s leading rusher had only 18 carries in the loss to the Jets and 13 carries during his homecoming in Texas. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry against the Jets and an eye popping 8.8 against the Cowboys so get him at least 25 rushes on Sunday even though Miami, on paper, is better at stopping the run than the pass. It will take some pressure off Fitzpatrick and maybe that old axiom of running to set up the pass will ring true.
By the way, if you believe the Bills have fallen off the shelf because of the defenses they’ve faced, I’ve got good news for you. Of the remaining 6 opponents(they face Miami twice), only the Jets(8th) and San Diego(10th) have top 10 rated defenses. The others are: Miami(20th), Tennessee(15th), Denver(18th) and New England(32nd).